Thomas Homer-Dixon

49 results found for: Climate Change


August 28th, 2015 —

Complexity Science

Homer-Dixon, Thomas, “Complexity Science,” Oxford Leadership Journal, January 2011, 2(1). An article based on the Canada School of Public Service’s 2010 John L. Manion Lecture, entitled “Complexity, Crisis and Change: Implications for the Federal Public Service.” “Complexity science isn’t a fad. I will offer a brief survey of some core concepts and ideas, and I [...]

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August 28th, 2015 —

Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis

Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis with Brian Walker, Reinette Biggs, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Carl Folke, Eric F. Lambin, Garry D. Peterson, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Will Steffen,  and Max Troell Ecology and Society 2015, 20(3): 6. Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and [...]

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November 15th, 2014 —

Today’s Butterfly Effect Is Tomorrow’s Trouble

Around the world, national institutions and political systems are designed to deal with single-cause problems and incremental and reversible change. But the world ain’t like that any more. Take a problem like climate change. Its causes are many and tangled; the climate system has flipped from one state to another in the past, and could do so again under human pressure; and once it flips, we won’t be able to get the old climate back.

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August 6th, 2014 —

The Conceptual Structure of Social Disputes: Cognitive-Affective Maps as a Tool for Conflict Analysis and Resolution

SAGEOpen (January-March 2014): 1-20. Co-authored with Manjana Milkoreit, Steven Mock, Tobias Schröder, and Paul Thagard. We describe and illustrate a new method of graphically diagramming disputants’ points of view called cognitive-affective mapping. The products of this method—cognitive-affective maps (CAMs)—represent an individual’s concepts and beliefs about a particular subject, such as another individual or group or [...]

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August 6th, 2014 —

Consider the Global Impacts of Oil Pipelines

Nature, Comment As scientists spanning diverse disciplines, we urge North American leaders to take a step back: no new oil-sands projects should move forward unless developments are consistent with national and international commitments to reducing carbon pollution. Anything less demonstrates flawed policies and failed leadership. Go to: Consider the Global Impacts of Oil Pipelines.

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October 7th, 2013 —

Climate Uncertainty Shouldn’t Mean Inaction

People who argue for inaction on climate change are betting that the vast majority of climate scientists are wrong. The balance of evidence is decisively against them.

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July 11th, 2013 —

No Trains, No Keystone XL?

The Lac- Mégantic tragedy will make large-scale rail shipment of oil products far less acceptable to the public in both Canada and the US. So the main alternative to Keystone XL that the State Department has identified is unlikely to be available at anything like the scale needed. If so, the pipeline’s approval would enable expansion of oil sands’ extraction that wouldn’t otherwise occur, and it would therefore lead to a large net increase in the oil sands’ carbon emissions—violating President Obama’s main criterion for approving the project.

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June 3rd, 2013 —

Oil Sands Debate

Resolved: The oil sands industry is distorting Canada’s economy and eroding its democracy in ways that will exact an enormous cost on our society over the long term.   THOMAS HOMER-DIXON How the oil sands industry is distorting Canada’s democracy and economy By 2030, Canada’s output from the oil sands will reach about five million [...]

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April 1st, 2013 —

The Tar Sands Disaster

President Obama rejected the pipeline last year but now must decide whether to approve a new proposal from TransCanada, the pipeline company. Saying no won’t stop tar sands development by itself, because producers are busy looking for other export routes — west across the Rockies to the Pacific Coast, east to Quebec, or south by rail to the United States. Each alternative faces political, technical or economic challenges as opponents fight to make the industry unviable.

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September 17th, 2012 —

Ice, Please — Climate on the Rocks

Those who deny the reality or significance of climate change often say Arctic sea ice also shrank dramatically as recently as the 1930s, so what’s happening now is just part of a natural long-term fluctuation. But the best recent analysis, published in the top scientific journal Nature last November, says that “both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years” and that the recent decline is “consistent with [human-caused] warming.”

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